Quantifying Rainfall Variability and Trend Dynamics in Kalat: A Case from Arid Balochistan

Abstract

District Kalat which is situated in the arid region of Balochistan, Pakistan is very important to study its rainfall variation and trends. This paper calculates 27 years of temporal trends and annual, seasonal variability of precipitation from 1998-2024. The Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s Slope Estimator were employed to identify the direction and amount of rainfall trends, whereas the coefficient of variation was used to measure interannual and seasonal fluctuations. The outcome determines that there are significant regional and temporal variability in precipitation, some months show cased an increasing trend where as other months showcased a decreasing or minimal change. Even with a wide range, winter and spring experienced more rainfall in comparison to Summer and Autumn. The results indicate a heightened unpredictability of precipitation trends, which are problem some for the region’s climate adaptability planning, water resource management and agriculture. This paper presents officials in the planning and policymaking domains perceptive information to enhance regional resilience in the face of climate variability.