False Flag or Faulty Intelligence? A Diplomatic Analysis of India's Accusations Against Pakistan After the 2025 Pahalgam Attack

Abstract

The 2025 Pahalgam incident, which killed 26 people including 25 tourists, ignited fears of renewed India-Pakistan tensions. Within hours, Indian media accused Pakistan of orchestrating the attack without credible evidence or forensic proof. This paper examines whether India’s diplomatic and media response was based on hard intelligence or driven by political motives. Indian mainstream and digital media quickly blamed Pakistani-backed militant groups, fueling a narrative of “cross-border terrorism” before any official investigation. This narrative laid the groundwork for Operation Sindoor, an overnight airstrike on alleged militant camps across the LOC, which Indian officials claimed was a “decisive message” to Pakistan. However, independent verification of targets or casualties was lacking. The timing coincided with domestic instability in India, raising questions about whether the operation aimed to deflect from mounting disaffection in Jammu and Kashmir and declining faith in security measures ahead of state elections. Meanwhile, Pakistan denied involvement, condemned the attack as terrorism, and demanded a joint or third-party investigation under the UN or a neutral body. Islamabad also reached out to China, Turkey, and OIC members, criticizing Indian media’s role in stoking tensions without proof. This study investigates the objectivity of India’s claims, analyzes diplomatic reactions from regional neighbors and global powers, and considers the implications of unsubstantiated accusations for regional stability and prospects for peace in South Asia.