Cognitive Biases and Climate Change Decision-Making: Understanding the Role of Optimism and Anchoring in Environmental Choices

Abstract

This study examines the role of optimism bias and anchoring bias in climate change risk perception and decision-making among 120 Pakistani university teachers in environmental science, psychology, and behavioral economics. The data were gathered using a self-report questionnaire with a quantitative research design and analyzed using correlation and regression analysis. The findings indicate that there is a strong negative correlation (r = -0.621, p < 0.001) between optimism bias and climate risk perception, and individuals with higher optimism bias overestimate climate risks. Anchoring bias was also statistically significant (B = 0.487, p < 0.001) in influencing beliefs related to climate and climate policy decisions, confirming that the use of first information influences environmental attitudes. In addition, interventions for mitigation such as risk communication that is targeted and behavioral change interventions had a significant positive impact on environmental decision-making (B = 0.532, p < 0.001). The study highlights the need to implement cognitive bias mitigation strategies in climate education and policy to increase awareness of risk and policy engagement. Long-term biases effects and the role played by misinformation on the internet should be addressed in future research.