Association of Covid-19 and Macroeconomic Growth: Lessons Learned in Managing with Future Pandemics and Preventing Economic System Degeneration

Abstract

What impact would the COVID-19 lockdown have on the number of infections and fatalities in 2019 as well as the GDP growth rate of each country? During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of confirmed cases in countries with short lockdown periods (about 15 days: Austria, Portugal, and Sweden) was divided by the average population. Moreover, nations with shorter lockdown times had lower average mortality rates (5.45% of independent sample tests have substantially shorter lockdown rates (5.4% vs. 12.7%), p-value of 0.05). According to the Mann-Whitney test, shorter lockdown durations were associated with reduced average death rates (U = 0, p-value = 0.005). According to the research, long-term lockdowns also had a detrimental effect on GDP growth. The loss in GDP (2010 index = 100) of nations with a long lockdown period (2010 index = 100) was in the order of 21% between the second quarter of 2019 and 2022 (t4 = 2.274, p-value 0.085, significant change from test sample). This data demonstrated how AR control attempts need extended periods of social isolation, resulting in a systematic deterioration of the economic system. Another significant discovery was that nations with high healthcare spending (as a percentage of GDP), had lower COVID-19 mortality rates and shorter lockdown periods, lessening the negative effects of the economic slowdown. What does this imply? As a result of the lessons learned during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study recommends that the health sector must be strengthened in order to create methods to mitigate the negative consequences of a future COVID-19-like epidemic. When novel viral viruses emerge, new and effective health institutions may respond with low fatality. Finally, substantial healthcare spending has established the social circumstances for a short-term lockdown with low mortality.