Linear Trend Analysis of Sugarcane in Sindh Province, Pakistan

Abstract

Sugarcane is an important agricultural crop that belongs to the grass family, Gramineae (Poaceae). Its scientific name is Saccharum officinarum, and it is classified as a monocotyledonous plant. The history of sugarcane cultivation dates back nearly 8,000 years, when it is believed to have first been grown in New Guinea in the South Pacific. From there, its cultivation gradually spread to the nearby Solomon Islands. Over the following 2,000 years, sugarcane moved westward through Indonesia and the Philippines before reaching northern India. As its importance increased, sugarcane cultivation expanded into other parts of Asia, including China, where it was introduced from India around 800 BC. The crop continued to spread westward and had reached Persia by approximately 500 AD. Later, during the expansion of Islamic civilization, sugarcane cultivation spread further into the Middle East and North Africa, reaching Egypt following the Arab conquest in the seventh century AD. Along with the spread of sugarcane cultivation, the word "sugar" also evolved. It is believed to have originated from the Sanskrit word Sarkara, which refers to grains or small particles of sugar. The data used for the linear trend analysis of sugarcane were accumulated from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics Department and the Department of Agricultural Extension Education (Crop Reporting) Wing, Hyderabad. The study was carried out using secondary data, a time series from 1982 to 2015 (34 years). Two software programs were used in this paper (SPSS and MATLAB). We have collected data for all districts of Sindh province, but from those we have selected some major districts for analysing the linear trend of sugarcane because in many districts sugarcane was not produced and in many other districts data was incomplete; that is why we are focusing on those districts in which data is complete, and sugarcane was produced in large quantities, i.e., Khairpur, Sukkur, Nawabshah, Sanghar, Dadu, Hyderabad, Badin, and Thatta. Linear trend analyses indicated that, in some districts of Sindh province, both area and production under the sugarcane crop have decreased, but in others, both have increased from 1982 to 2025.