Between U.S. and China: Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Geopolitics of Great-Power Competition in the 21st Century

Abstract

The U.S.–China rivalry has become a defining feature of the international system in the 21st century, with significant implications for the Middle East, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia. This article analyzes the nexus between great-power competition and the economic, military, and geopolitical strategies of these two regional actors in an emerging multipolar order. For Iran, under unrelenting Western sanctions and chronic diplomatic isolation, a "Look East" strategy can provide not only trade and investment but also limited political support as part of its ultimate survival mechanism and means to enhance regional power. In comparison, Saudi Arabia—a historically close U.S. ally—is hedging by diversifying its external relations towards China while simultaneously maintaining the security and financial relationship it has long enjoyed with Washington. China has developed into a post-Soviet type trade partner for both states, yet the United States projects power through acculturation across financial systems, innovation, and security collaboration. On the military side, Iran is still at risk of ongoing U.S. containment, while Saudi Arabia balances American defense assurances with advances in military cooperation with China that will include technology transfer and limited arms assistance. Such a double-edged alignment exemplifies both opportunities and constraints: Iran benefits from the sanctions relief offered by China but risks being pulled into Chinese orbit; for its own, Saudi Arabia reaps rewards of new partnerships—yet faces added strategic pressure so as not to antagonize its main source of security. Thus, the study finds that both states make active use of U.S.–China competition to garner as many benefits for national interests as they can; but both strategies also open them up to long-term vulnerabilities. The fluid triangular dynamics among Washington, Beijing, Tehran and Riyadh are shaping regional orientations and will ultimately determine whether the Middle East moves toward further polarization, pragmatic coexistence, or selective diplomatic rapprochement.