The US Retreat from Afghanistan, Taliban Resurgence, and Regional Implications in South Asia: A Special Focus on Pakistan

Abstract

In August 2021, when the United States military left Afghanistan, nearly 20 years of direct intervention ended, radically shifting the geopolitical balance in South Asia. The paper will consider the complex causal linkage between the US withdrawal, the rapid Taliban resurgence, and the various regional consequences, particularly in Pakistan. The paper relies on literature in the field of strategic studies, policy reports, and empirical data to examine the historical background of the rise and fall of the Taliban, the key factors that contributed to the American withdrawal and the Doha Agreement, the shift in priorities of the US foreign policy, and how the power ended up in the hands of the Taliban. The paper will discuss the security, economic, humanitarian, and diplomatic impacts of these developments on South Asia with a particular emphasis on how Pakistan, the nearest neighbor and most caught in the crossfire of all neighbors, Afghanistan, has been forced to reestablish its security stance, its foreign policy and its domestic governance in response to the growing cross-border militancy, influx of refugees and the great-power realignments. The findings emphasize that the situation after 2021 is a paradox: the decreased external military presence did not result in increased stability, and the role in correcting the dysfunction in Afghanistan has been distributed unequally among regional forces, with Pakistan on the losing end.